Hindsight seems like it’s 20/20, but is it?

Once you’ve seen a result, it’s easy to come up with reasons why it happened. It might even seem obvious, but what if you’re wrong?

It’s human nature to develop stories to rationalize what we experience. Just because the story fits, doesn’t make it true.

The rooster crows before the sun rises. Does the rooster cause the sun to rise? No, clearly correlation doesn’t mean causation. Something that appears to occur later might even be the cause.

If we’re great at differentiating cause from correlation, we’d probably get pretty good at predictions. Has your hindsight helped you predict the future?